This monograph is based on a presentation by Nick Young to a Wilton Park Conference in Steyning, UK, in October 2006.

Section I (pp 3-11) describes the range and nature of growing inequalities in China, citing indicators that are largely drawn from Chinese government sources. (This section was published in our December 2005 newsletter)

Section II (pp 11-22) discusses the role of inequality in the economy, also placing this in a historical and global context. It argues that inequality in land and labour markets has been a driver of growth but now constrains change in the nature of that growth.

Section III (pp 22-35) considers the political sustainability of inequality. It sketches emerging class stratification, noting that the wide gap between top and bottom income groups is occupied by a “bulging middle,” comprising roughly half the population, whose incomes are rather low and whose fortunes and attitudes will be critical to future stability. This section concludes that palliative measures and policies the government is now putting in place will, given continued, steady economic growth, probably suffice to avoid widespread unrest. But, this section also argues, incremental political reform to increase administrative accountability will be increasingly necessary to satisfy rising social expectations.

Subscribers can download here our 160 pp. Special Report on NGO Advocacy in China.

INTRODUCTION:

What place will ethnic minorities occupy in China’s future?

At the time of the 2000 census, 131 million Chinese people were living away from their officially registered place of residence. The 2005 China Human Development Report suggests that the number has since risen to 150 million and projects that by 2010 it may rise to 250 million people—the overwhelming majority of them farmers leaving the land for work in manufacturing or service industries.

The staggering scale of this migration both illustrates and underlines the profound social and economic transformation under way in China. At the turn of the century, for the first time in their “5,000 years of continuous history,” more Chinese people were employed in manufacturing and service industries than in agriculture. Although there are plenty of farmers left, earnings from their tiny plots are generally low, and so too is the relative productivity of the sector. (By 2004, the 46.9% of the population still employed in agriculture were producing only 15.2% of GDP. ) Conditions therefore appear set for a continued drain out of agriculture. Farming is likely to become a part-time activity for many families, while some of the most remote and resource-poor areas are likely to be substantially de-populated. Further, rapid urbanisation seems inevitable.

The remainder of the introcuction can be downloaded free of charge, together with the table of contents by clicking here. (pdf format, 260KB).

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The Yunnan Provincial Profile and Situation Analysis (67 pages) was published in December 2005 by Nick Young and James Yang.

An April 2005 report (commissioned by Save the Children UK) that looks into Anhui's development with particular attention to the situation of children. By Nick Young & James Yang, 21 pages.