A combination of technical innovation, institutional reform and price and tax mechanisms, backed up by greater public consultation and participation, could enable China to become a “resource-efficient and environment-friendly society” by 2020, according to a group of Chinese Academy of Science scholars who published a 400-page “China 2006 Sustainable Development Strategy” at the end of February.

Based on a composite index of resource use and end-pipe pollution relative to gross domestic product, the researchers calculate that China’s overall environmental performance ranks 54th out of 59 major countries that together produce more than 90% of the world’s GDP. Applying the same indicator to analyse differences within China they find that richer regions generally perform better, with poorer, western provinces lagging behind. This, they argue, shows that “comprehensive economic power” is necessary to achieve industrial restructuring—“problems arising from development must be overcome by accelerating development”—but future development must nonetheless “leapfrog” to become less resource-, energy- and pollution-intensive.

To achieve this, they say, China must move beyond end-of-pipe pollution abatement and control to create resource efficiency and pollution prevention strategies for the whole production, consumption, and recycling chain. Citing Germany and Japan as examples of industrialised countries that took an early and integrated approach to achieving this shift, the scholars present a series of recommendations, including:

● Traditional industries must be greened with improved technologies, and new growth areas developed based on ICT, “green manufacturing” and modern service industry. This will require more state support for research and development. At the same time, environmental performance standards and certification should be introduced, with “more stringent market access standards for key industries and products.” China should create a “producers’ responsibility system” (akin to the “polluter pays” principle for internalising externalities.)

● Developers must pay realistic prices for extracting or using natural resources that belong to the state or to local collectives. China must stop being a “low-priced state”

● As major purchasers of goods and services, central and local governments must develop “green procurement systems.”

● There should be a drive to develop “smart cities,” with particular attention to sustainable public transport and energy efficient buildings.

● Sustainable consumption should be encouraged by emphasising “cultural, technological and knowledge-based consumption” rather than material and capital consumption.

● Government should encourage public consultation and participation, creating an enabling environment for media and NGOs.

If China follows this recipe, say the scholars, it will be possible by 2020 to cut, per unit of GDP produced, energy consumption by 50%-60% per cent; water by 80%; cement by 40% and non ferrous metals by 20%. It will also be possible to cut, per unit of GDP, the emission of CO2 by 60%, SO2 by 75% and waste water by 70%. There should, the scholars say, be zero growth in total use of water, and less than 45% should be used for agriculture.

The report was published ahead of the annual assemblies of the National People’s Congress and the China People’s Political Consultative Conference. It is available in Chinese (2006中国可持续发展战略报告－－建设资源节约型、环境友好型社会), and can be bought online at: www.sciencep.com/sciencep/publish/bookdetails.php?searchingbookid=15487

Report by Nick Young, March 24 2006